June 2024 Hot Sheet: Analysis + Trendwatching Across the Ballot Measure Landscape
Welcome to BISC’s newest monthly blog – The Hot Sheet!
Here, we’ll give you a quick rundown of what you need to know about the 2024 ballot measure landscape right now — the trends, analysis, highlights of what’s on the ballot, and why it all matters.
Please note that ballot measures are in the qualification stage and the landscape information provided below is subject to change.
On the Ballot
As of June 27, 133 ballot measures have qualified for the 2024 ballot.
Of those measures —
- 82 are legislatively-referred
- 36 are citizen-initiated
- 11 are bond issues
- 3 are advisory questions
- 1 is a constitutional convention question
Issue Area Breakdown
The Toplines
- Ballot Initiative Process: Attacks on the initiative process in Arizona and North Dakota reflect broader tensions between proponents of direct democracy and those advocating for more stringent regulations and oversight.
- Reproductive Rights: The 11 confirmed and potential pro-reproductive freedom ballot measures in play across the country demonstrate the nationwide response to the 2022 Dobbs decision repealing Roe v. Wade. While their approaches vary depending on their state’s political climate, all have one thing in common: the belief that the question of reproductive rights should be left to the people.
- Marriage Equality: Lawmakers in California, Colorado, and Hawaii are proposing measures to enshrine marriage equality in their state constitutions. The move comes on the heels of the Dobbs decision and other U.S. Supreme Court rulings in recent years that have caused increased concern that a conservative SCOTUS might overturn Obergefell v. Hodges.
- Minimum Wage + Tax Exemptions: With inflation top of mind in this election year, voters in Alaska and California will have the opportunity to weigh in on citizen-initiated efforts to increase their minimum wages while voters in Nevada and South Dakota consider tax exemptions for everyday necessities such as diapers and groceries, respectively.
Emerging Trends
Citizenship Voting Requirements
This November, voters in Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Wisconsin will be asked to vote on initiatives that would mandate that only U.S. citizens can vote in state elections. The measures follow unfounded claims of widespread voter fraud stemming in part from the 2020 presidential election, and pair with increasingly anti-immigrant sentiments — sometimes strategically. In the case of Missouri, for example, the citizens-only proposal appears in the same legislatively-referred constitutional amendment as a prohibition on ranked-choice voting. The citizenship question is considered by some to be ‘ballot candy’ intended to entice voters to support the RCV ban.
Legal Challenges Targeting Reproductive Freedom Measures
While lawsuits regarding ballot initiatives are not uncommon, reproductive freedom measures seem especially likely to end up in court. In 2024 alone, 4 of the 13 reproductive rights campaigns have already seen legal challenges: Arizona, Florida, Montana, New York, and South Dakota. As we see more reproductive freedom measures certified for the 2024 ballot, we’ll likely also see more lawsuits.
Record-Breaking Reproductive Freedom Initiative Petitions
In every state with a citizen-initiated ballot initiative process, campaigns are required to submit a minimum number of petition signatures. This year reproductive freedom campaigns across the country are breaking their states’ records for the number of petition signatures, including Montana’s 117,000 signatures and Colorado’s 240,000 signatures. Missourians for Constitutional Freedom even gathered nearly 20,000 signatures on April 2 alone, setting a state record for the most signatures collected in a single day. And last week Arizona for Abortion Access submitted more than 820,000 petition signatures — more than double the number of signatures required and equivalent to roughly 1 in 5 voters.
Despite ongoing attacks on the signature-gathering process, it is clear that voters are eager for opportunities to decide for themselves the future of abortion rights in their states.
Ballot Measures to Watch
Issue: Direct Democracy
Arizona: Proposition 134: Distribution Requirement for Initiatives Amendment
What It Does: If passed, this amendment would increase the number of signatures required to earn an initiative a place on the ballot. Campaigns would need to collect signatures from at least 10% or 15% of qualified electors in each of Arizona’s 30 legislative districts, depending on whether it’s for a state statute or a constitutional amendment.
Why It Matters: The amendment would complicate and impede the initiative process even more in the state, potentially limiting the ability of citizens to enact change through direct democracy altogether. To mount such a robust statewide signature-gathering campaign advocates would need an immense amount of resources (financial, logistical, and otherwise), potentially limiting the ability of citizens to enact change through direct democracy.
Where It Stands: This legislatively-referred constitutional amendment will appear on the November 5, 2024 ballot.
BISC Analysis: A Growing Need to Defend Direct Democracy
Threats to the ballot initiative process highlight a growing need to defend direct democracy and to preserve the integrity and accessibility of citizen-driven initiatives. Examples include bills like Idaho’s SB 1377 which instituted strict requirements for ballot petition signature collectors and Florida’s HJR 335 which sought to further increase the existing 60% vote threshold to pass constitutional amendments even further to 67%, as well as legislatively-referred constitutional amendments like Arizona’s and North Dakota’s.
In 2017, BISC monitored just 33 bills relating to the ballot measure process. Compare that to 2023 legislative sessions in which 165 bills were introduced in 39 states that would impact the ballot initiative process, 76 of which sought to restrict or undermine the process. While most state legislatures have adjourned for the season, BISC continues to track 11 active bills across California, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania that could alter the citizen initiative process.
Issue: Reproductive Rights + Countermeasures
Nebraska: Protect the Right to Abortion
What It Does: This proposed constitutional amendment would secure the right to abortion up until the point of fetal viability, or roughly 22-24 weeks.
Why It Matters: Abortion in Nebraska is legal up to 12 weeks with limited exceptions including instances where the pregnant person’s life is in danger, when an abortion is necessary to prevent series risk to their physical health, or if the pregnancy is the result of rape and/or incest.
Where It Stands: The Protect Our Rights campaign turned in roughly 207,000 petition signatures — setting a state record and surpassing the 124,467 requirement. The Secretary of State’s Office has until September 13 to certify the measure for the November ballot.
Nebraska: 12-week Abortion Ban
What It Does: This anti-abortion countermeasure to the ‘Protect Our Rights’ reproductive freedom initiative would ban abortion after the first trimester, with some exceptions.
Why It Matters: The current 12-week limit is in state statute, whereas the ‘Protect Women and Children’ measure would enshrine in the state constitution severe limitations on abortion rights after the first trimester. The campaign is using branding similar to Protect Our Rights to confuse voters, which may have something to do with the 12-week ban collecting almost as many signatures as the proactive initiative.
Where It Stands: The campaign submitted approximately 205,000 signatures. The Secretary of State’s Office has until September 13 to certify the measure for the November ballot.
BISC Analysis: Counter Measures Challenging Reproductive Freedom Campaigns
Countermeasures are intended to confuse voters, drain funds, and cause voter confusion. BISC’s research going back to 2016 shows that voters take deciding ballot measures seriously and feel that if they don’t understand or have enough information they are more likely to vote “no” or skip voting on the issue altogether. Addressing countermeasures requires increased spending on voter education, communication, and research.
Issue: Economic + Worker Justice
Alaska: Minimum Labor Standards Initiative
What It Does: Better Jobs for Alaska is advocating for a measure that would incrementally increase the state’s minimum wage to $15/hour by 2027 and allow it to be adjusted annually for inflation. Additionally, the measure provides that employees may accrue up to 56 hours per year of paid sick leave and prohibits employers from compelling employees to attend religious or political meetings unrelated to their work.
Why It Matters: The minimum wage increase and paid sick leave initiative echo nationwide calls for fair compensation and improved working conditions. These efforts align with ongoing discussions at the federal level regarding minimum wage standards and worker benefits, showcasing a grassroots push for economic equity.
Where It Stands: The citizen-initiated initiative has qualified for the November 5, 2024 ballot after the campaign submitted more than 40,000 petition signatures.
BISC Analysis: A Growing Worker’s Rights Movement
The economic justice measures on the 2024 ballot reflect broader national trends and conversations surrounding workers’ rights, wages, and housing affordability. These efforts align with ongoing discussions at the federal level regarding minimum wage standards and worker benefits, showcasing a grassroots push for economic equity.
For more in-depth analysis and a list of all the measures we’re tracking, head to our Ballot Measure Hub.
About Ballot Initiative Strategy Center:
The Ballot Initiative Strategy Center is the only progressive organization that works across the many policy, organizing, and political organizations, with local, state, and national players to analyze and support the ballot measure landscape. You can visit us at ballot.org.