August 2024 Hot Sheet: Analysis + Trendwatching Across the Ballot Measure Landscape
Welcome back to The Hot Sheet!
Here, we give you a quick rundown of what you need to know about the 2024 ballot measure landscape right now — the trends, analysis, highlights of what’s on the ballot, and why it all matters. *Please note that some ballot measures are still in the qualification stage and the landscape information provided below is subject to change.
For more in-depth analysis and a list of all the measures we’re tracking, head to our Ballot Measure Hub.
On the 2024 Ballot
As of August 21, there are 140 measures remaining on statewide ballots in 2024. Of those measures,
- 78 are legislatively-referred
- 45 are citizen-initiated
- 13 are bond issues
- 3 are advisory questions
- 1 is a constitutional convention question
Issue Area Breakdown
As of August 21, 2024, 14 initiative campaigns have submitted signatures and are awaiting confirmation on if they have qualified for a 2024 ballot. 1 citizen-led initiative campaign in Arkansas to expand the state’s medical marijuana program has been granted a 30-day cure period to submit additional signatures.
The Toplines
- Proposition 136, a legislatively-referred constitutional amendment in Arizona, could hinder future ballot initiatives by extending the timeline for potential legal challenges. Meanwhile in Oklahoma, a new state law with that same goal could prevent an otherwise qualified measure from being printed on the ballot in time for the general election.
- Officials in Arizona and Florida are hoping that misleading, incendiary, and downright inaccurate ballot language will convince voters to reject reproductive freedom measures. Lawmakers in other states are similarly turning to bureaucratic red tape in the hopes that they can prevent voters from weighing in on popular initiatives.
- A slate of economic justice ballot measures across the country, including the freshly certified citizen-initiated Proposition A in Missouri, seek to improve the lives of workers with increased wages, improved benefits, and the right to unionize.
Emerging Trends
Defending the Freedom to Marry from SCOTUS Intervention
There is growing concern that an increasingly conservative U.S. Supreme Court could overturn Obergefell v. Hodges, the 2015 decision that upheld the freedom to marry nationwide. A conservative Florida-based legal group advocating for just that recently filed a brief on behalf of Kim Davis, the former Rowan County Clerk who previously refused to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. With all of this in mind, legislatures in California, Colorado, and Hawai’i have referred to the ballot measures that proactively ask voters to uphold the freedom to marry.
Anti-Abortion Officials Using Red Tape to Tie Up Reproductive Freedom Ballot Measures
Concerned about proven voter support for reproductive rights (particularly given the streak of wins since 2022’s Dobbs decision overturned Roe v. Wade), anti-abortion lawmakers are increasingly relying on bureaucratic red tape in their fight to prevent the measures from succeeding at the ballot box — or even from reaching the ballot box at all. While secretaries of state in Arkansas and Montana spent the month of July working to prevent complete counts of petition signatures, state committees in Arizona and Florida are editorializing statements otherwise intended to provide voters with unbiased information about initiatives.
Ballot Measures to Watch
Issue: Direct Democracy
Arizona Proposition 136: Legal Challenges to Constitutionality of Initiatives
What It Does: The constitutional amendment would allow a person to contest the constitutionality of a ballot measure in court after it has been filed.
Why It Matters: The purpose of Prop. 136 is to bog down the citizen-led initiative process with frivolous lawsuits. The subsequent impact on a campaign’s legal costs could negatively impact voter education and engagement efforts.
Where It Stands: This legislatively-referred constitutional amendment will appear on the November 5, 2024 ballot.
BISC ANALYSIS: Opponents of Direct Democracy Would Rather Battle Initiatives in the Courtroom Than at the Ballot Box: Legal challenges are par for the course when it comes to ballot measures. However, opponents of the initiative process itself are increasingly deploying legal strategies intended to stall or undermine the will of the people rather than ensure a measure’s legality and integrity.
Issue: Reproductive Freedom
Florida Amendment 4: Limiting Government Interference with Abortion
What It Does: The measure proposes a constitutional amendment to prohibit any law that would prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion for adults up until the point of fetal viability, and then with exceptions to protect the patient’s health.
Why It Matters: The state currently has in place a six-week ban on abortions following the state supreme court’s decision that the right to abortion isn’t covered in the state’s constitutional right of privacy. This ban affects not only Floridians, but the thousands of other Southerners who have historically relied on the state’s providers for abortion care.
Where It Stands: The measure is confirmed for the November general election ballot following an April 1 decision by the state supreme court. A recent lawsuit filed by the Floridians Protecting Freedom campaign unsuccessfully sought to block a biased version of the financial impact statement from appearing on the ballot alongside the measure. The appointed Financial Impact Estimating Conference (which includes members handpicked by Gov. Ron DeSantis) had drafted an impact statement so inaccurate that even the state’s chief economist refused to sign it. The approved text claims that Amendment 4 would “negatively impact the state budget.”
BISC ANALYSIS: Anti-Abortion Lawmakers are Inserting Personal Bias into Official Ballot Language: Voters should be able to expect that the language on their ballots is clear, informative, and impartial. Unfortunately, it seems that some state officials in Arizona and Florida disagree. Relying on biased and incendiary framing (for example, saying “unborn human being” rather than “fetus”) shows us that anti-abortion lawmakers would rather mislead voters than respect their right to vote in accordance with their priorities and values.
Issue: Economic Justice + Labor
Missouri Proposition A: Minimum Wage and Paid Sick Leave
What It Does: This citizen-initiated measure, led by Missourians for Healthy Families and Fair Wages, would raise the state’s minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026 to keep up with inflation. Further, it would require all employers to provide at least one hour of paid sick leave for every thirty hours worked.
Why It Matters: Missouri’s current minimum wage is $12.30, nearly $8 below the estimated ‘living wage’ for residents. According to the campaign, this meaningful wage increase would affect over 137,000 Missouri parents as well as 338,000 children living with a parent who earns minimum wage. Similarly, the requirement for paid sick leave would benefit not just Missouri individuals, but parents needing to stay home to care for a sick child.
Where It Stands: Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft recently certified the measure for the November general election ballot after the campaign submitted more than 210,000 signatures from voters across the state.
BISC ANALYSIS: Ballot Initiatives Continue to Serve as a Critical Tool for Worker Advocacy: Worker justice groups continue to rely on ballot initiatives to advocate for the ability to thrive in every aspect of their working lives, from fair wages to meaningful benefits and critical workplace protections. This year, citizens in Alaska to Missouri (and hopefully Nebraska and Oklahoma, too) will have the opportunity to vote on critical issues like increased minimum wage and paid sick leave.
And while a failed 2022 proposal in Massachusetts bankrolled by ‘Big Gig’ companies would have sought to deny gig workers fair wages and basic protections, this fall the state will have a chance to support a measure guaranteeing Lyft and Uber drivers the right to unionize. Should the initiative pass, unionized workers would have the leverage they need to negotiate for improved wages, benefits, and working conditions.
For more in-depth analysis and a list of all the measures we’re tracking, head to our Ballot Measure Hub.