December Hot Sheet: Key Threats to 2024 Victories + Potential Challenges to Direct Democracy

12/19/2024

Welcome back to The Hot Sheet!

Here, we give you a quick rundown of what you need to know about the 2024 ballot measure landscape — the trends, analysis, highlights of what’s on the ballot, and why it all matters.

This month we are highlighting legal and legislative threats seeking to undermine — or overturn — 2024 victories, as well as potential legislation that could weaken the ballot initiative process. BISC is committed to defending direct democracy as a critical means of collaborative governance that allows citizens to help steer their state and local policies, particularly as increasing political partisanship fails to reflect the policy needs of more and more citizens.

For a selection of 2024 ballot measure election results, more in-depth analysis, and our latest voter attitudes research, head to our Ballot Measure Hub.

The Toplines

State lawmakers in Missouri and Montana are exploring legislative options to limit or overturn abortion rights ballot initiatives that passed in their states last month. Meanwhile, Missouri’s abortion rights advocates await a court decision to overturn some of the state’s targeted regulations on abortion providers (TRAP) laws that continue to make abortion all but inaccessible in the state.
The Nebraska Supreme Court has agreed to consider the appeal case of Nebraska Secretary of State Bob Evnen and former state senator John Kuehn, who are trying to overturn two popular citizen-led ballot initiatives that legalize and regulate medical marijuana.
Some Missouri business interest groups are banding together to overturn the voter-approved Proposition A, which gradually increases the state’s minimum wage and allows workers to earn paid sick leave.
With the 2025 legislative session season soon to begin, legislators in Texas, Missouri, and Montana are already filing legislation aimed at attacking the People’s Tool.

Challenges to Ballot Initiative Victories

In the wake of significant ballot measure victories reflecting the power of the people, opponents of specific initiatives and direct democracy at large are exploring paths to challenge the successful measures. Such opponents include state lawmakers, elected officials, business interests, and more. While a handful of legal challenges and legislative threats have begun to trickle in, BISC anticipates that number will grow as effective dates and legislative sessions approach.

Issue: Healthcare

- Nebraska Initiative 437: Medical Cannabis Legalization and Nebraska Initiative 438: Medical Cannabis Regulation
  - Legal Challenge A: Kuehn v. Evnen, et al.: Nebraska Secretary of State Bob Evnen and former state senator John Kuehn are suing to nullify the voter-approved medical cannabis legalization and regulation ballot measures, Initiatives 437 and 438. Opponents of the measures have argued that neither should have qualified for the ballot due to evidence of signature fraud on some of the petitions. Though a district court judge previously ruled that the petitions were valid, the Nebraska Supreme Court has agreed to take up the appeal and allow it to bypass the Nebraska Court of Appeals.

Issue: Economic Justice

- Missouri Proposition A: Minimum Wage and Paid Sick Leave
  - Legal Challenge: McCarty, et al. v. Mo. Sec. of State, et al.: The Missouri Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Missouri Restaurant Association, Associated Industries of Missouri, Missouri Grocers Association, National Federation of Independent Business have filed a lawsuit asking the Missouri Supreme Court to overturn voter-approved Proposition A. The coalition argues that because the labor justice measure increases minimum wage and allows workers to earn paid sick leave, it violates the state’s single-subject rule for ballot initiatives. Notably, Prop. A opponents filed the lawsuit one month after it was overwhelmingly passed by Missouri voters rather than prior to Election Day, for example during the qualification or ballot finalization phases.

Issue: Reproductive Freedom

- Missouri Amendment 3: Right to Reproductive Freedom
  - Legislative Threat: Though the Missouri House Majority Leader previously said his party would respect the will of the voters, Rep. Patterson and other legislators within the Republican caucus have already filed several proposals to limit the effects of the abortion rights amendment — or overturn it altogether, including:
    - House Joint Resolution 9 would ask voters to amend the state constitution to define life as beginning at conception, effectively classifying abortion as murder and endangering in vitro fertilization.
    - Senate Joint Resolution 5 would require rape survivors to file police reports before attempting to obtain an abortion.

- Montana CI-128: Right to Abortion
  - Legislative Threat: Immediately following Election Day, Rep. Lee Deming (R) filed a bill draft request for a constitutional amendment to define a person. The bill would likely ask voters to define life as beginning at conception, effectively outlawing abortion despite the success of CI-128.

Issue: Democracy

- Washington, D.C. Initiative 83: Ranked-Choice Voting and Open Primaries
  - Legal Challenge: Initiative 83 was approved by nearly 73% of voters. However, its 2026 rollout is uncertain due to two ongoing legal challenges and the D.C. Council’s decision on funding. The D.C. Democratic Party, the plaintiff in a lawsuit currently on appeal, argues that the open primaries piece of Initiative 83 violates voters’ rights to freely associate with a political party and that the city’s Home Rule charter instructs voters to elect the mayor, attorney general and members of the D.C. Council on a partisan basis.

Bills to Watch

In 2024, BISC tracked 103 bills relating to the ballot measure process. With the next round of legislative sessions just around the corner we are already beginning to track pre-filed bills — some of which make direct attacks on the People’s Tool. In the months to come, we will closely monitor all legislation that seeks to weaken or strengthen the ballot measure process.

Missouri House Joint Resolution 10: A legislatively-referred constitutional amendment that would be proposed to voters in an upcoming election, this measure uses a ban on foreign donors to ballot measure campaigns as a sort of ‘ballot candy’ to entice voters to also pass increased signature-gathering requirements for citizen-led initiatives and a requirement that they earn the votes from a majority of voters in a majority of congressional districts. Notably, legislatively-referred measures would still only need a simple majority vote in order to pass and the proposed ballot language doesn’t mention the new signature collection requirements.
Montana Senate Bill 47: Would require legislative committee review of a citizen-led ballot initiative after its deemed legally sufficient by the courts. This legislation likely stems from the Montana Supreme Court ruling that the CI-128 abortion rights measure wasn’t subject to review by a legislative committee, despite the demands of GOP legislators.
Texas House Bill 524: While Texas does not allow for statewide ballot initiatives, state law does leave room for roughly 350 “home-rule” cities to allow local citizen-led initiatives. This bill would give the state attorney general power over local self-governance, likely with the aim of preventing cities from passing their own progressive policies.

In Case You Missed It

BISC’s Resource Library: Our Partner Portal Resource Library houses ballot measure information ranging from campaign tools, templates, and past campaign materials (Values, MOUS, RFPs, etc.) — to campaign debriefs and memos highlighting best practices. This library is a unique resource that can help campaigns and organizations build strategies and operationalize racial equity.