January Hot Sheet: Attacks on Direct Democracy Take Center Stage in State Legislatures

01/24/2025

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Welcome back to The Hot Sheet!

Here, we give you a quick rundown of what you need to know about the 2025 ballot measure landscape — the trends, analysis, highlights of what’s on the ballot, and why it all matters. 

For more in-depth analysis, our latest voter attitudes research, and information on the measures we’re tracking, head to our Ballot Measure Hub.

What’s on the 2025 Ballot

As of January 10, there are five confirmed measures on statewide ballots this spring in Louisiana and Ohio.

As of January 10, there are five confirmed measures on statewide ballots this spring in Louisiana and Ohio. All of which are legislatively-referred. 

BISC is currently tracking 84 measures that are vying for the 2025 ballot.

The Toplines

  • Leading up to the 2025 state legislative sessions now getting underway around the country, some legislators pre-filed bills intended to attack the ballot initiative process and direct democracy in general. 
  • Despite having the second-highest incarceration rate in the nation, Louisiana legislators have referred to the March 29 ballot a constitutional amendment giving them the power to decide the list of offenses for which teenagers as young as 14 could be tried as adults.
  • The fate of Nebraska’s 2024 medical marijuana legalization and regulation initiatives continues to hang in the balance. A lawsuit filed by former state senator John Kuehn has been expanded to include those tasked with implementing the voter-approved laws.

Emerging Trends

In legislative sessions currently getting underway, legislators have filed a number of bills intended to attack direct democracy. Major trends we’re seeing among those pieces of legislation include:

  • Higher vote thresholds for citizen-initiated measures: Though Florida’s abortion rights Amendment 4 received an impressive 57% of the vote in November, it was ultimately unsuccessful due to the state’s required 60% threshold. Seeing this, lawmakers who seek to similarly limit voters’ power are hoping to raise thresholds in their own states.
  • Additional requirements for signature collection: The signature collection phase of the ballot initiative process is critical to understanding popular support for a proposal. It is also inherently challenging, requiring thoughtful organizing and access to considerable resources. But some states are considering creating additional hurdles in the process, including higher signature count requirements or quieting the voices of petition signers in more populous areas.
  • Legislative control over ballot language: Legislators are looking to further consolidate ballot measure powers in their favor. Several bills remove from the judicial branch the ability to make changes to misleading ballot language for legislatively-referred measures.
  • Bans on ‘foreign spending’ as “ballot candy” to distract voters from efforts to chip away at the People’s Tool: Several potential legislatively-referred measures are deceptively branded by legislators as ‘foreign spending’ bans but feature additional aspects that include the above attacks in the fine print.

Ballot Measure to Watch

Issue: Criminal-Legal Reform

Louisiana Act 3: Legislative Authority to Determine Crimes for Trying Juveniles as Adults

What It Does: Appearing on the state’s March 29 ballot, this proposed amendment would remove the current list of crimes specified in the state constitution that allow juveniles to be tried as adults under special circumstances. Instead, it would grant the Louisiana Legislature the authority to determine, via two-thirds votes, which crimes can lead to juveniles being tried as adults. 

Why It Matters: Juveniles as young as 14 can already face adult prison sentences for a limited list of mostly violent crimes in Louisiana, and a state law passed in 2024 requires that 17-year-olds be tried as adults. This proposal goes even further: a minor could potentially be charged as an adult for any crime. 

BISC Analysis: BIPOC Youth Disproportionately Affected by Prosecution Policies: Due to ongoing prejudices in the justice system as well as compounding factors such as socioeconomic status, it is children of color who are most likely to receive harsh sentences when tried as adults. The Equal Justice Initiative reports that before the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against life-without-parole sentences for juveniles convicted of nonhomicide offenses, 70% of those 14 or younger who were sentenced to die in prison were children of color. And Black youths make up 77% of Louisiana’s juvenile detention system. As lawmakers continue to pursue “tough on crime” policies, it will fall to voters to advocate for meaningful justice and rehabilitation.

Challenges to 2024 Initiatives

Issue: Economic Justice

    • Missouri Proposition A: Minimum Wage and Paid Sick Leave 
      • Legislative Threats: So far in the 2025 legislative session, six bills have been filed to curtail the effects of Prop. A: 
        • One to overturn Prop. A entirely — removing workers’ right to earn paid sick leave and reinstating the previous minimum wage of $12.30/hour (HB 715)
        • One to exempt small and seasonal businesses from increasing their minimum wage (HB 546)
        • One to delay the second increase to $15/hour (HB 555)
        • Two that would exempt employees under 18 or 20 years old from minimum wage increases beyond the 2024 rate of $12.30/hour (HB 625; SB 532) 
        • One to delay workers’ right to earn paid sick leave from May 1, 2025 to January 1, 2026 (HB 567) 

Issue: Healthcare

    • Nebraska Initiative 437: Medical Cannabis Legalization and Nebraska Initiative 438: Medical Cannabis Regulation
      • Legal Challenge A: Kuehn v. Evnen, et al.: Former state senator John Kuehn has amended his lawsuit to add several parties. The additions are a strategy to stop the individuals tasked with implementing the laws from doing so.
        • The three commissioners of the Nebraska Liquor Control Commission who will serve on the new Nebraska Medical Cannabis Commission.
        • State Treasurer Tom Briese and Tax Commissioner Jim Kamm, who will oversee the new collection of sales taxes on medical cannabis. 
        • CEO Steve Corsi of the Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services, whose department handles oversight of medical practitioners.

In Case You Missed It

BISC’s Resource Library: Our Partner Portal Resource Library houses ballot measure information ranging from campaign tools, templates, and past campaign materials (Values, MOUS, RFPs, etc.) —  to campaign debriefs and memos highlighting best practices. This library is a unique resource that can help campaigns and organizations build strategies and operationalize racial equity.