November 2024 Hot Sheet: Analysis + Trendwatching Across the Ballot Measure Landscape

11/20/2024

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Welcome back to The Hot Sheet!

Here, we give you a quick rundown of what you need to know about the 2024 ballot measure landscape — the trends, analysis, highlights of what’s on the ballot, and why it all matters. 

For a selection of 2024 ballot measure election results, more in-depth analysis, and our latest voter attitudes research, head to our Ballot Measure Hub.

Statewide Measures on the November 5 Ballot

There were 147 ballot measures on statewide and Washington D.C. ballots on November 5.

On November 5, there were 147 measures on statewide and Washington D.C. ballots. Of those measures, 

  • 73 were legislatively-referred
  • 57 were citizen-initiated
  • 13 were bond issues
  • 3 were advisory questions
  • 1 was a constitutional convention question

November 5 Issue Area Breakdown:

Note: An additional four legislatively-referred constitutional amendments will appear on Louisiana’s upcoming December 7 Open General/Congressional ballot. Three will address democracy topics (the Louisiana legislature and state supreme court), while one will focus on fiscal policy.

The Toplines

  • States saw progressive victories in a variety of issue areas from abortion rights and paid sick leave to collective bargaining and public education, despite setbacks on the federal level. 
  • Voters rejected each of the three legislatively-referred amendments in Arizona and North Dakota that sought to limit the People’s Tool.
  • Abortion rights amendments succeeded in seven states (Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, and New York), clearing the way to overturn restrictions such as the country’s first post-Dobbs abortion ban in Missouri. Additionally, voters in Illinois signaled support for potential state policy to require health insurance coverage for in vitro fertilization.
  • Voters passed measures to increase the minimum wage and require paid sick leave in Alaska and Missouri, require paid sick leave in Nebraska, and allow Uber and Lyft drivers to bargain collectively in Massachusetts.
  • Losses on popular issues including citizen-led redistricting in Ohio and reproductive freedom in Florida can be tied back to interference from opposing state officials, in some cases to the tune of millions in taxpayer dollars. 
  • Well-funded misinformation campaigns sought to derail popular ballot initiatives, even succeeding in the case of one abortion rights measure in Nebraska.
  • Public school advocates won a slate of victories in Colorado, Kentucky, and Nebraska where voters rejected or repealed public funding for private education.

Emerging Trends

Ballot Measure Interference from State Officials

Election night saw a number of progressive ballot measure victories, but some initiatives fell short after months of state officials working overtime to block their success. 

  • Ohio state officials drafted ballot language intended to mislead voters about the purpose and effect of Issue 1, the initiative to create an independent, citizen-led redistricting commission. For example, the language falsely asserted the measure would require gerrymandering when in fact Issue 1 was designed to end gerrymandering. Despite a lawsuit from the Citizens Not Politicians campaign asserting that such language was biased and misleading, a Republican-majority Ohio state supreme court ruled 4-3 that the language could remain. Issue 1 ultimately fell just short of passing at 46.2%.
  • And in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis used immense state resources to sway voters to reject the abortion rights measure (Amendment 4) and the marijuana legalization initiative (Amendment 3). His administration’s antics include ordering a state police force to investigate petition signers for Amendment 4, threatening local TV stations for airing a Floridians Protecting Freedom ad, and ultimately spending an estimated $50 million in taxpayer dollars on a messaging campaign to defeat Amendment 3. 

Progressive Ballot Measures Faced Misinformation Campaigns

Opponents of reproductive freedom are increasingly weaponizing misinformation to effectively confuse voters and derail abortion rights ballot measures. 

  • The only campaign this year to face an anti-abortion countermeasure, Nebraska’s abortion rights measure Initiative 439 was not successful at the ballot box on election night. The backers for the countermeasure to enshrine the state’s 12-week abortion ban (Initiative 434) used branding and language similar to its pro-reproductive freedom counterpart, likely with the aim of misleading Nebraska voters. Their campaign of confusion was effective — a record-breaking 304 Nebraskans said they were tricked into signing onto the initiative’s petition to qualify for the ballot. That initiative passed with 55% of the vote.
  • New York’s Proposal 1 faced an onslaught of disinformation in the final weeks leading up to the election. $8 million in last-minute donations from conservative donors, including billionaires Liz and Dick Uihlein known best for their support of President-elect Donald Trump and anti-LGBTQ+ organizations, fueled opposition to the legislatively-referred Equal Rights Amendment. One ad that made the rounds on television and social media played on anti-immigrant sentiments, falsely claiming that the measure would grant immigrants ‘special rights’ when in fact Proposal 1 has nothing to do with immigration and does not grant special rights to any group. The campaign doubled down on voter engagement and education, ultimately succeeding with 61.8% of the vote.

Election 2024 Highlights

Issue: Direct Democracy

Arizona Propositions 134: Distribution Requirement for Initiatives Amendment — FAILED: 41.9%

Why It Matters: A legislatively-referred constitutional amendment, Prop. 134 would have required initiative campaigns to collect signatures in each of the state’s 30 legislative districts — 10% of votes cast for governor for state statutes and 15% for constitutional amendments.

BISC ANALYSIS: Voters Recognize and Reject Attacks on the People’s Tool: Despite state officials in Arizona and North Dakota branding anti-direct democracy proposals as ‘regulation’, voters saw these attacks for what they were. They understand that in times when some elected officials are pushing harmful agendas, ballot initiatives must be protected as a powerful tool to counter these policies and help safeguard our communities. The importance of defending direct democracy is clearer now more than ever before as it is one of our last lines of defense to push back against policies that harm our most vulnerable communities, such as immigrants and trans people. 

Issue: Reproductive Freedom

Missouri Amendment 3: Right to Reproductive Freedom — PASSED: 51.7%

Why It Matters: Missouri made history on November 5 as the first state to clear the path for overturning a trigger abortion ban following 2022’s Dobbs decision. Amendment 3 prevents the government from denying or interfering with a person’s fundamental right to reproductive freedom up until the point of fetal viability. Several surrounding states that have suffered from similar trigger bans will now have the benefit of abortion access a little closer to home.

BISC ANALYSIS: Abortion Rights Prove Popular Even In Places Where Measures Fell Short: Though Florida’s Amendment 4 earned 57% of the vote, its success was ultimately blocked by the state’s required 60% minimum for constitutional amendments. What would have been considered a landslide victory elsewhere was unfortunately not enough to clear the highest threshold in the country. But Florida advocates are not through fighting and are now calling on state lawmakers to respect the wishes of a clear majority of Floridians to overturn the state’s near-total ban on abortion. And while Nebraska’s proactive Protect Our Rights abortion measure did not pass on Election Day, it nonetheless earned an impressive 48.6% of the vote despite being the country’s only campaign forced to compete with a well-funded anti-abortion countermeasure.

Issue: Economic Justice + Labor

Alaska Measure No. 1: Increased Minimum Wage & Paid Sick Leave — PASSED: 56.5%

Why It Matters: Alaskans will now see their minimum wage gradually increase to $15 an hour by July 1, 2027, and be adjusted in the future to keep up with inflation. They’ll also be allowed to accrue up to 40 or 56 hours of paid sick leave a year and be protected from required meetings on political or religious matters unrelated to their work.

BISC ANALYSIS: Voters Prioritize Worker Justice Measures That Uplift Families and Communities: Amidst election uncertainties at the federal level, voters across the country chose to support policies that more directly affected their families and communities. Economic justice measures that improve working conditions have a snowball effect for the employee, the business, customers, and the economy, a combined value that voters recognize and prioritize. While the White House and the halls of Congress can feel a million miles from a Nebraska Main Street or the Massachusetts Turnpike, voters can have a direct impact on their hometowns through economic justice ballot measures.