The Hot Sheet

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE BALLOT MEASURE LANDSCAPE RIGHT NOW

February 2026

The Toplines

• As of February 12, BISC is tracking 64 measures qualified for 2026 ballots.
• Frustrated by the success of progressive people-powered ballot initiatives, some lawmakers are responding with legislatively-referred measures to repeal voter-approved policies.
• A legislatively-referred measure on the November ballot in South Dakota threatens 2022’s voter-approved Medicaid Expansion initiative.
• In 2026, defending direct democracy will require early intervention, attention to rule changes as much as policy outcomes, and sustained focus on implementation and enforcement.

Unsurprisingly, the framing of these legislatively-referred measures is often misleading. Take for example this November’s Amendment 3: a Missouri court had to rewrite the ballot language in order to clarify that legislators’ proposal to overturn a 2024 reproductive rights initiative would, in fact, do exactly that. Or in South Dakota, where a legislator claims they’re not subverting the will of the people but merely asking voters to “clarify” their stance on the 2022 Medicaid expansion initiative that they passed at 56%.

But even amid these legislative attempts to undermine voters, citizen-led initiative efforts continue to move forward. This spring, campaigns continue to collect signatures for a number of proactive initiatives including a reproductive rights initiative in Idaho, a 2028 Medicaid expansion initiative in Florida, and two direct democracy initiatives in Arkansas (by Protect Arkansas Rights and by Save AR Democracy), one in Missouri, and another in Nebraska. Ballot initiatives deliver life-changing policies for communities and advocates aren’t backing down in the face of legislative challenges. 

2026 Ballot Measure to Watch

South Dakota: Medicaid Expansion Conditioned on 90% Federal Funding (LR)

What It Does: Under this amendment, South Dakota will terminate its expanded Medicaid eligibility requirements if the federal funding match falls below 90%.

Why It Matters: Under the state’s Medicaid expansion, benefits are currently available to adults between ages 18 and 65 with incomes below 133% of the federal poverty level. When passed by voters in 2022, the expansion made an estimated 50,000 South Dakotans eligible to receive benefits — the legislature’s proposal would put them at risk of losing their Medicaid access. Doug Sombke, president of the South Dakota Farmers Union, has stressed that restrictions on the state’s Medicaid expansion would severely harm working-class people, pointing out that most farmers are struggling to make ends meet and can’t provide private healthcare benefits to their workers. The resolution’s sponsor in the senate pointed out that should federal funding match get cut to 70%, for example, the state would be on the hook for an additional $72 million to sustain expansion and South Dakotans would essentially be forced to choose between funding Medicaid access or public schools.

BISC ANALYSIS: When the Fight for Medicaid Expansion Becomes A Fight for Direct Democracy — And Democracy Itself: South Dakota lawmakers have continually targeted Medicaid Expansion since voters approved Amendment D in 2022. But the years-long assault on this particular citizen-led ballot initiative is just one aspect of their broader efforts to limit direct democracy in the state. Similarly, while House Bill 1205 could make it especially difficult for Florida Decides Healthcare to qualify their Medicaid Expansion initiative, the policy’s provisions are intended to block virtually any grassroots effort.

As advocates in both states work to protect or win Medicaid Expansion for their communities, they’re simultaneously working to defend their constitutional right to the People’s Tool. Ballot initiatives are models for co-governance, giving voters an important role to play alongside their elected leaders in developing people-centered policies. But in a time of rising authoritarianism, too many lawmakers interpret voter collaboration and engagement as a threat to the consolidated state power. To defend our right to direct democracy is about defending our right to engage in democracy itself.

2026 Outlook: Direct Democracy at a Crossroads

The 2025 landscape marked a turning point for direct democracy in the United States. Across the year, BISC’s analysis documented a clear shift: attacks on ballot initiatives are no longer isolated, reactive, or limited to election cycles. They are increasingly systematic, institutionalized, and forward-looking — designed not just to block individual measures, but to permanently constrain the People’s Tool itself. As we enter 2026, these patterns point to a more coordinated and consequential phase of democratic contestation.
The most consistent trend of 2025 was the migration of conflict after voter approval. Nebraska’s delayed and restricted medical cannabis rollout, Missouri’s continued legal resistance to voter-approved reproductive rights, and repeated post-election litigation across states show that implementation has become the preferred terrain for neutralizing voter power.
In 2026, implementation fights will continue to intensify. Likely tactics include emergency or interim rulemaking that narrows voter mandates, strategic appointments to implementing bodies, serial lawsuits designed to delay benefits beyond election cycles, and legislative efforts to condition, sunset, or retroactively weaken voter-approved laws. These moves preserve the appearance of democratic compliance while denying voters the substance of their decisions.
Courts emerged in 2025 as central arbiters of direct democracy — and increasingly as targets. Judges who enforced voter-approved reforms faced political backlash, threats of impeachment, and public intimidation. Attorneys general and secretaries of state relied more heavily on preemptive and serial litigation to control outcomes through process rather than persuasion. In 2026, courts will remain pivotal. We should expect more efforts to delegitimize judicial enforcement as “anti-democratic,” even as courts serve as one of the last institutional checks on post-election sabotage.
If 2025 was the year these trends became unmistakable, 2026 will be the year they either consolidate or are interrupted. Direct democracy is being targeted not because it fails, but because it works — particularly for communities shut out of legislative power. The outlook for 2026 is clear: defending direct democracy will require early intervention, attention to rule changes as much as policy outcomes, and sustained focus on implementation and enforcement. The stakes are not confined to a single election cycle. They extend to whether popular sovereignty remains a living principle — or becomes a procedural illusion.

2026 Ballot Measure Landscape

As of February 12, BISC is tracking 64 measures qualified for 2026 ballots. 213 citizen-led initiatives have been cleared for signature collection while an additional 106 measures have been filed.

2026 Ballot Measure Trends: What’s Next?

The success of California’s Prop. 50 could continue to weigh heavily on voters’ minds as advocates in Missouri attempt to repeal the state’s legislature’s gerrymandered map. But the fight extends well beyond redistricting, with other democracy-related measures showing a major divide between pro-voter expansion (same-day registration, rights restoration) and voting restriction (photo ID, citizenship proof). BISC’s role here is to defend the principle that direct democracy is a critical component of democracy itself. We must stay focused on the larger question: how can we ensure that every community has the power and the tools to shape a democracy that truly works for all of us?

A number of legislatively-referred measures on the 2026 ballot reflect a growing trend toward limiting the people’s initiative power, like increasing thresholds to pass measures, adding procedural hurdles like single-subject requirements, and more. While legislatures continue to undermine the will of the people, there is growing backlash from communities across the country against those attacks. There is a continued trend toward strengthening the initiative process and imposing supermajority requirements on legislative interference.

Amid rising authoritarianism, direct democracy is an increasingly vital tool for our liberation, and BISC continues to defend the will of the people in order to strengthen our democracy, center communities, and build, wield, and transform power.

Ballot Measure Progress

Progressive policies are passing at the ballot in Red, Blue, and Purple states such as Florida, Arizona, Missouri, and Ohio. Through the power of direct democracy, the people are transforming power, advancing racial equity, and galvanizing a new progressive base. 

Through the power of direct democracy, citizens have passed policies such as: 

• Minimum wage increases
• Protecting and expanding reproductive freedoms
• Decriminalization of marijuana
• Paid Family Leave
• Medicaid expansion
• Taxing the wealthy
• Restoration of voting rights
• Reparations
• Transforming public safety

Attacks on the Ballot Measure Process

In 2017, BISC monitored just 33 bills relating to the ballot measure process. Compare that to 2025 legislative sessions in which 295 bills were introduced in 43 states that would impact the ballot initiative process, at least 156 of which sought to restrict or undermine the process. 

What does an attack on direct democracy look like?

Some tactics used by lawmakers who are attempting to weaken the ballot initiative process include:

• Proposing legislation to make the ballot process harder to access
• Bringing forth legal challenges against initiatives that have been already been approved by voters
• Blocking the implementation of ballot measures that have already passed

Why are the attacks happening?

Efforts to undermine and weaken ballot measures have been increasing since the 2016 election in response to progressive wins and people-powered democracy at the ballot box. 

In many states, some politicians and wealthy special interests are trying to make it harder for voters to propose and pass ballot initiatives under the cover of so-called “reforms.” These attacks have escalated and have become more nuanced, sophisticated, and would have deeper impacts on the initiative process. These restrictive measures take a variety of forms, but they all serve the same function: to undermine the will of the people and diminish their decision-making power. BISC and our partners are fighting back against these attacks and spearheading the movement to #DefendDirectDemocracy. 

As we continue to face rising restrictions on voting rights, reproductive freedoms, and civil liberties, it is more important than ever to protect our freedom to shape the laws that govern us — especially through ballot initiatives. Together, we can fight against the anti-democracy initiatives that threaten our livelihoods and work to build a democracy rooted in equity and justice, where all people are treated with dignity and thrive.

For more information on our analysis or to schedule an interview with one of our policy experts, please email [email protected].