The Hot Sheet

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE BALLOT MEASURE LANDSCAPE RIGHT NOW

January 2026

The Toplines

• As of January 7, there are 60 measures qualified for 2026 ballots.
• Attempts to restrict the ballot initiative process and oppress voters are being branded as “protection” and “security” in order to sow distrust in direct democracy specifically and American democracy generally.
• Advocates with Florida Decides Healthcare are heading to federal court to defend their state’s initiative process against a slate of aggressive anti-direct democracy policies. Their lawsuit will have major impacts not only for their state, but for every state where the People’s Tool is under attack.
• A legislatively-referred measure on the November ballot in South Dakota threatens 2022’s voter-approved Medicaid Expansion initiative.

So what are we to make of these ironic calls to protect voters by eroding their rights? Or supposed concerns about respecting the will of the people? Or these bad faith efforts to secure elections from the very voters who try to engage in them? These kinds of concerted efforts to sow distrust in the People’s Tool specifically and our elections generally, are part of a larger movement by some lawmakers to undermine our entire democracy. These attacks are branded as necessary defenses in order to deceive voters and to convince us that authoritarian rule is the solution to the chaos those same authoritarians have sown. 

But there is hope, too. BISC’s November 2025 polling on authoritarianism revealed voters are interpreting attempts to restrict ballot initiatives as tied to rising authoritarianism. That’s especially true for those already feeling increasingly concerned about the state of our democracy. As more Americans understand these oppressive efforts for exactly what they are, we must stand together against those who want to make ballot initiatives and our democratic systems harder to use, and protect our power to make real change for our communities. 

Defending Direct Democracy

Florida

The Fight: On February 9, plaintiffs representing Florida Decides Healthcare will begin their federal trial against a slate of aggressive anti-direct democracy policies that have made it incredibly challenging for grassroots campaigns to collect initiative petition signatures. Their lawsuit focuses on several provisions of 2025’s House Bill 1205, including:

• Voter Information Disclosures: Invalidates a voter’s signed petition unless the voter discloses sensitive personally identifying information.
• Criminal Fines and Penalties: Imposes criminal sanctions for racketeering related to “irregularities or fraud involving issue petition activities”, including filling in missing information on a signed petition.
• Circulator Eligibility Bans: Bans individuals who are not Florida residents and U.S. citizens from circulating petitions, whether as volunteers or paid circulators. Also bans those who have been convicted of felonies and have not yet had their rights restored.
• Verification Fee Increases: Authorizes the Supervisors of Elections to drastically increase the fees they charge campaigns to verify signatures.
• 10-Day Return Requirement: Requires campaigns to submit signed petitions within just ten days — down from 30, dramatically increasing the cost of compliance and penalties for delays.

Working with a legal team that includes Elias Law Group and Southern Poverty Law Center, Florida Decides Healthcare successfully secured two major preliminary injunctions against some of HB 1205’s provisions last year. 

Why It Matters: Florida is the only state in the Southeast where voters have access to the People’s Tool, and House Bill 1205 puts that power in grave danger. Without a workable initiative process, Floridians wouldn’t have been able to pass major policy wins like free universal Pre-K, a $15/hour minimum wage, voting rights restoration, land conservation, and so much more. The results of this lawsuit will hugely impact the fate of Florida’s future grassroots ballot initiative campaigns.

But when it comes to defending ballot measure access, the results of the Florida Decides Healthcare v. Byrd case will reverberate far beyond the Sunshine State’s borders. Anti-direct democracy policies in Florida have long served as a sort of blueprint for other states’ attacks on their own processes. Though led by Floridians, this lawsuit is a pivotal battle in the fight to defend direct democracy nationwide and to protect voters’ power to enact policies that make meaningful changes to their lives. 

Procedural traps like those crafted by HB 1205 are strategically used to drain time, momentum, and especially money from grassroots efforts. The direct democracy defenders with Florida Decides Healthcare aren’t giving in without a fight, and the campaign is actively fundraising to cover what are expected to be considerable litigation costs while they also continue their work to qualify for the November 2028 ballot.  

Arkansas

The Fight: A unanimous opinion from the Arkansas Supreme Court has granted legislators the power to overturn or amend citizen-initiated constitutional amendments. 

Why It Matters: The ruling not only upends 74 years of legal precedent, but overrules the voices of voters and the very spirit of direct democracy. Notably, the legislature already had the power to overturn or amend a voter-approved statute with two-thirds support in each chamber. So while citizens have to jump through even higher hoops for an initiated amendment versus a statute, legislators must only meet the exact same bar to override either. Arkansans already face one of the most challenging ballot initiative qualification processes in the country, a fact that the legislature only double-down on in 2025 with a slate of new restrictions (some of which have been at least temporarily blocked in court — though state officials quickly appealed). Bill Kopsky with Protect AR Rights, a group pursuing an initiative to defend direct democracy in the state, says that, “The Legislature is wanting to make the process so confusing and make people so pessimistic that people just abandon it and give away their power. Their whole thing is trying to strip the people of their power, and the easiest way to do that is to get people to give up on it themselves.” League of Women Voters of Arkansas with another campaign pursuing a pro-direct democracy amendment, Save AR Democracy, released a statement saying, “Protecting the direct democracy process from interference by politicians is more important than ever.” Both campaigns’ proposals include language that would explicitly bar the legislature from amending voter-approved constitutional amendments.

Missouri

The Fight: People Not Politicians Missouri have submitted more than 305,000 petition signatures for their referendum challenging the legislature’s gerrymandered redistricting map — nearly triple the amount required to qualify. However, Missouri Secretary of State Denny Hoskins is still refusing to count or validate any of the signatures collected before Gov. Kehoe officially signed the map into law in mid-October. Advocates took him to court, but a circuit court judge says he won’t make his decision until it’s determined whether People Not Politicians has enough post-October 14 signatures to qualify and render the whole case ‘moot’.

Why It Matters: After the legislature passed the gerrymandered map, People Not Politicians immediately set to work and in a matter of weeks collected 103,000 petition signatures for their referendum. With Hoskins’ refusal to count those signatures, the voices of those 103,000 Missourians are being silenced in what will surely prove to be yet another failed tactic by the State to block the powerful, citizen-led referendum effort. People Not Politicians executive director Richard von Glahn argues that, “The referendum process is about Missourians’ voices being heard, and we shouldn’t have a state official seeking to silence those voices arbitrarily.” 

2026 Ballot Measure to Watch

South Dakota: Medicaid Expansion Conditioned on 90% Federal Funding (LR)

What It Does: Under this amendment, South Dakota will terminate its expanded Medicaid eligibility requirements if the federal funding match falls below 90%.

Why It Matters: Under the state’s Medicaid expansion, benefits are currently available to adults between ages 18 and 65 with incomes below 133% of the federal poverty level. When passed by voters in 2022, the expansion made an estimated 50,000 South Dakotans eligible to receive benefits — the legislature’s proposal would put them at risk of losing their Medicaid access. Doug Sombke, president of the South Dakota Farmers Union, has stressed that restrictions on the state’s Medicaid expansion would severely harm working-class people, pointing out that most farmers are struggling to make ends meet and can’t provide private healthcare benefits to their workers. The resolution’s sponsor in the senate pointed out that should federal funding match get cut to 70%, for example, the state would be on the hook for an additional $72 million to sustain expansion and South Dakotans would essentially be forced to choose between funding Medicaid access or public schools.

BISC ANALYSIS: When the Fight for Medicaid Expansion Becomes A Fight for Direct Democracy — And Democracy Itself: South Dakota lawmakers have continually targeted Medicaid Expansion since voters approved Amendment D in 2022. But the years-long assault on this particular citizen-led ballot initiative is just one aspect of their broader efforts to limit direct democracy in the state. Similarly, while House Bill 1205 could make it especially difficult for Florida Decides Healthcare to qualify their Medicaid Expansion initiative, the policy’s provisions are intended to block virtually any grassroots effort.

As advocates in both states work to protect or win Medicaid Expansion for their communities, they’re simultaneously working to defend their constitutional right to the People’s Tool. Ballot initiatives are models for co-governance, giving voters an important role to play alongside their elected leaders in developing people-centered policies. But in a time of rising authoritarianism, too many lawmakers interpret voter collaboration and engagement as a threat to the consolidated state power. To defend our right to direct democracy is about defending our right to engage in democracy itself.

2026 Ballot Measure Landscape

As of January 7, there are 60 measures qualified for 2026 ballots. 208 initiative campaigns are circulating petitions while an additional 103 measures have been filed.

2026 Ballot Measure Trends: What’s Next?

The success of California’s Prop. 50 could continue to weigh heavily on voters’ minds as advocates in Missouri attempt to repeal the state’s legislature’s gerrymandered map. But the fight extends well beyond redistricting, with other democracy-related measures showing a major divide between pro-voter expansion (same-day registration, rights restoration) and voting restriction (photo ID, citizenship proof). BISC’s role here is to defend the principle that direct democracy is a critical component of democracy itself. We must stay focused on the larger question: how can we ensure that every community has the power and the tools to shape a democracy that truly works for all of us?

A number of legislatively-referred measures on the 2026 ballot reflect a growing trend toward limiting the people’s initiative power, like increasing thresholds to pass measures, adding procedural hurdles like single-subject requirements, and more. While legislatures continue to undermine the will of the people, there is growing backlash from communities across the country against those attacks. There is a continued trend toward strengthening the initiative process and imposing supermajority requirements on legislative interference.

Amid rising authoritarianism, direct democracy is an increasingly vital tool for our liberation, and BISC continues to defend the will of the people in order to strengthen our democracy, center communities, and build, wield, and transform power.

Ballot Measure Progress

Progressive policies are passing at the ballot in Red, Blue, and Purple states such as Florida, Arizona, Missouri, and Ohio. Through the power of direct democracy, the people are transforming power, advancing racial equity, and galvanizing a new progressive base. 

Through the power of direct democracy, citizens have passed policies such as: 

• Minimum wage increases
• Protecting and expanding reproductive freedoms
• Decriminalization of marijuana
• Paid Family Leave
• Medicaid expansion
• Taxing the wealthy
• Restoration of voting rights
• Reparations
• Transforming public safety

Attacks on the Ballot Measure Process

In 2017, BISC monitored just 33 bills relating to the ballot measure process. Compare that to 2025 legislative sessions in which 295 bills were introduced in 43 states that would impact the ballot initiative process, at least 156 of which sought to restrict or undermine the process. 

What does an attack on direct democracy look like?

Some tactics used by lawmakers who are attempting to weaken the ballot initiative process include:

• Proposing legislation to make the ballot process harder to access
• Bringing forth legal challenges against initiatives that have been already been approved by voters
• Blocking the implementation of ballot measures that have already passed

Why are the attacks happening?

Efforts to undermine and weaken ballot measures have been increasing since the 2016 election in response to progressive wins and people-powered democracy at the ballot box. 

In many states, some politicians and wealthy special interests are trying to make it harder for voters to propose and pass ballot initiatives under the cover of so-called “reforms.” These attacks have escalated and have become more nuanced, sophisticated, and would have deeper impacts on the initiative process. These restrictive measures take a variety of forms, but they all serve the same function: to undermine the will of the people and diminish their decision-making power. BISC and our partners are fighting back against these attacks and spearheading the movement to #DefendDirectDemocracy. 

As we continue to face rising restrictions on voting rights, reproductive freedoms, and civil liberties, it is more important than ever to protect our freedom to shape the laws that govern us — especially through ballot initiatives. Together, we can fight against the anti-democracy initiatives that threaten our livelihoods and work to build a democracy rooted in equity and justice, where all people are treated with dignity and thrive.

For more information on our analysis or to schedule an interview with one of our policy experts, please email [email protected].