Trends Watcher

2025 Emerging Trends

As BISC continues to support our state partners in three main issue areas (Direct Democracy, Direct Democracy, Economic Justice, and Reproductive Freedom), we are closely tracking emerging trends that could impact the ballot initiative process or our election processes at large — both for better and for worse.

Anti-Trans Legislators Weave Attacks on Gender-Affirming Care into Anti-Abortion Bills

It comes as no surprise that a slate of bills have been filed that propose overturning Missouri’s 2024 reproductive freedom initiative, Amendment 3. But found within the text of several such bills — including HJR47, HJR54, HJR63, HJR73, SJR5, SJR9, SJR33 — are explicit proposals to prohibit gender-affirming care for minors. 

The language for each bill is carefully crafted, and the placement of the GAC ban in proposed ballot language is equally strategic. For some, the ban receives top billing while for others it is the last line a voter would read before selecting Yes or No on the legislatively-referred constitutional amendment at the ballot box.

The pairing of the two topics is nefarious and strategic: the bill sponsors hope to draw out anti-trans voters to secure a defeat of abortion rights, and anti-abortion voters to secure a victory against the health and well-being of trans youth. On the whole, the issue underscores the importance of reproductive freedom and LGBTQ+ rights advocates working together to defend bodily autonomy for all.

Amid Nationwide Attacks on Direct Democracy, Some Lawmakers Fight to Introduce Initiative Process to Their State

Following recent years of progressive ballot initiative wins across the country, nearly one hundred legislative attacks on direct democracy have been filed already this year. Yet there is also considerable work being done to introduce — or restore — the ballot initiative process in several states. In addition to a recent call from Wisconsin Gov. Evers for legislators to create an initiative process in his state, BISC is currently monitoring 17 bills that would provide some form of direct democracy in 11 states from Connecticut to Hawai’i to Texas. 

But not all such proposals are necessarily proactive. Mississippi’s HCR 30, for example, would only restore a very limited version of the citizen’s initiative process to the state following a 2021 Mississippi Supreme Court decision that effectively voided the previous one. For example, HCR 30 would bar citizens from proposing any initiative concerning abortion and require campaigns to collect signatures from 12% of the total state electorate — a threshold considerably higher than most other states with an initiative process. This simply is not a true restoration of the process if there are such stringent limits on what can be brought to voters and how.

Direct Democracy Landscape: 2025 Outlook

As of February 6, BISC is monitoring 172 bills related to direct democracy filed in legislatures across the country. 

These bills reflect a range of legislative efforts, from increasing barriers to the ballot measure process — such as higher signature collection thresholds, vote requirements, and legislative oversight — to proactive initiatives aimed at expanding or refining direct democracy systems. But overall, the direct democracy legislative landscape reveals a coordinated effort to restrict the ballot measure process and make it more difficult for citizen-led initiatives to reach the ballot and succeed. Below are highlights of notable bills and initiatives filed to date:

Increased Signature Collection Requirements

  • Several states, including Arkansas (SB 102, SB 212), Missouri (HB 551, HB 575, HJR 10, HJR 55, HJR 80), and Oregon (HJR 3, HJR 11, SJR 30), have proposed stricter rules for signature collection.
  • These bills often include residency requirements, bans on per-signature payment models, and heightened verification processes.
  • Some measures, such as Montana’s LC 1636, require petition signers to be “active” registered voters, potentially invalidating signatures of those registered voters who have not participated in recent elections.

Higher Vote Thresholds for Passage

  • Many states are pushing for higher thresholds to pass ballot measures, particularly for constitutional amendments.
  • Missouri (HJR 11, HJR 16, HJR 18, HJR 52, HJR 78, HJR 80, SJR 10, SJR 30, SJR 47), Idaho (H 2), North Dakota (HCR 3003), Oklahoma (HJR 1013, SJR 5), and South Dakota (HJR 5003) are among those advocating for 60% or more voter approval.
  • Some proposals are more complicated. For example, in  Missouri one proposal (HJR55) would require that a measure be passed by both a statewide majority and by a majority of voters in a majority of counties while another (SJR47) would require constitutional amendments to pass by a statewide majority and by a majority of voters in each of at least three-quarters of congressional districts.

Legislative and Executive Control Over Ballot Measures

  • Some bills demonstrate growing tensions between legislative, executive, and judicial branches of state government. Others are conspicuous efforts by lawmakers to weaken the power of voters.
  • In Arizona, there is a proposal (SB 1534) for ballot language to be prepared and approved by a Legislative Council, rather than Secretary of State and Attorney General. Notably, the Arizona legislature has held a Republican-majority in both the House and the Senate for more than thirty years, while the positions of secretary of state and attorney general are each currently held by Democrats.
  • Idaho (H 85) would grant the governor the power to veto voter-approved initiatives.
  • Montana (SB 47) would require additional legislative committee review for ballot measures deemed legally sufficient by the courts.

Restrictions on Foreign Funding and Campaign Contributions

Challenges to Ballot Language and Judicial Oversight

  • Missouri (HB 402, HB 414, HB 551, HB 575) and Arkansas (HB 1222) introduce stricter rules on ballot language, limiting the ability of courts or advocates to challenge misleading summaries.

Introduction of New Initiative Processes in Some States

  • Several states, including Iowa (HJR 5), New Jersey (SCR 60), New York (A 4239, S 3132), and South Carolina (S 95), are proposing proactive legislation to create or expand citizen-led ballot measure processes.

Types of Ballot Measures:

There are several types of key ballot measure issue areas, including:

  • Direct Democracy: Laws governing ballot measures and the initiative process
    • Signature Gathering 
    • Language Development 
    • Protection and Implementation of Ballot Measures
  • Reproductive Freedom: Policies and legal protections to act on decisions regarding pregnancy
    • Reproductive Health: A continuum of physical, mental and social-emotional care pertaining to the reproductive system at all stages of life. 
    • Reproductive Rights: Largely focused on abortion, contraception, and in vitro fertilization (IVF) legal policies.
  • Economic Justice: Systemic policies that end the cycle of poverty and prevent wealth inequality
    • Worker Rights
    • Wages and Benefits 
    • Paid Sick Leave 
    • Paid Family Leave  
    • Fair Lending 
    • Housing
  • Democracy: Policies that pertain to our governing systems 
    • Voting Rights 
    • Elections 
    • Campaign Finance
    • Redistricting
  • Fiscal Policy: Policies that pertain to taxation and government spending
    • Income Taxes 
    • Property Taxes 
    • Corporate and Business Taxes 
    • State Budgets 
    • Education Funding 
  • Civil Rights: Guarantees of equal social opportunities and protection under the law, regardless of race, religion, or other characteristics
    • Racial Equality 
    • Gender Equality 
    • Marriage Equality 
    • Criminal Legal Reform
  • Health Justice: Access to equitable and affordable quality health care for all
    • Medicaid Expansion 
    • Universal Healthcare 
    • Cost Transparency 
    • Full-Body Healthcare 
  • Education: Policies in the educational sphere that govern the operation of education systems
    • Public Education Funding and Vouchers
    • School-to-Prison Pipeline 
    • Curriculum
    • School Choice 
  • Environmental Protection: Policies that impact the protection of the natural environment, conservation of natural resources and the existing natural environment
    • Oil & Gas 
    • Mining 
    • Air Quality 
    • Recycling 
    • Land Use 
  • Immigration: Policies that influence migration for permanent settlement, temporary labor migration, migration for family reunification and migration of highly skilled workers

BISC’s Resource Library houses ballot measure information ranging from past campaign materials to campaign debriefers to memos highlighting best practices, serving as a unique resource for campaigns to build their own strategies. To request access to the library, please email [email protected].