Trends Watcher

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2024 Emerging Trends

As BISC prepares for continued success in 2024 with three main issue areas (Reproductive Freedom, Direct Democracy, and Economic Justice) leading the way, we are closely tracking emerging trends that could impact the ballot initiative process or our election processes at large — both for better and for worse.

Legal Challenges Targeting Reproductive Freedom Measures

While lawsuits regarding ballot initiatives are not uncommon, for those leading campaigns to restore or protect reproductive freedom it increasingly seems as though a lawsuit at some point in the process is an inevitability. Already this year, six campaigns have each faced or filed at least one legal challenge: Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Montana, New York, and South Dakota. 

Of these six, Florida, New York, and South Dakota have so far survived legal challenges by lawmakers and anti-abortion organizations alike that sought to block qualified measures from the November 5 ballot. Montanans Securing Reproductive Rights successfully sued for qualification of signatures by registered ‘inactive’ voters (after several rounds of lawsuits this spring before they even reached the signature-collecting phase), and Arkansans for Limited Government are now asking their state supreme court to compel Secretary of State Thurston to count the petition signatures gathered by their paid collectors. And advocates in Arizona and Florida have sued over biased and inaccurate ballot language designed to discourage voters from passing their citizen-initiated constitutional amendments.

Record-Breaking Reproductive Freedom Initiative Petitions

But despite the attacks on these reproductive freedom measures, and a growing number of threats to states’ signature-gathering processes, it is clear that voters are eager for opportunities to decide for themselves the future of abortion rights in their states. This year reproductive freedom campaigns across the country are breaking their states’ records for the number of petition signatures, including Montana’s 117,000 signatures and Colorado’s 240,000 signatures. Advocates in Arizona collected more than 820,000 petition signatures — equivalent to 1 in 5 Arizona voters! Missourians for Constitutional Freedom even gathered nearly 20,000 signatures on April 2 alone, setting a state record for the most signatures collected in a single day.

And while a robust signature count by no means guarantees a win on Election Day, it’s a noteworthy temperature check for support of an initiative. Take for example the 710,000 signatures submitted by Ohio abortion advocates for in 2023. Issue 1 would go on to win with nearly 57% of the vote at 2,227,384.

Citizenship Voting Requirements

This November, voters in Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Wisconsin will be asked to decide whether to mandate that only U.S. citizens can vote in their state elections. The measures follow unfounded claims of widespread voter fraud, and pair with increasingly anti-immigrant sentiments — sometimes strategically. In Missouri, for example, the citizenship question is considered by some to be ‘ballot candy’ intended to entice voters to support the proposed ranked-choice voting ban that is included in the same legislative-referred constitutional amendment.

While citizenship voting requirements are not new (six states have passed them since 2018), a recent survey reveals that proving citizenship may not be so easy for 1 in 10 U.S. citizens and worse, more than 3.8 million people don’t have any form of proof of citizenship documentation whether that be a birth certificate, passport, naturalization certificate or a certificate of citizenship. Additionally the lack of documentation “disproportionately affects marginalized racial and ethnic groups,” with 11% of respondents of color unable to readily access such documents compared to 8% of their white counterparts.

Election Denialism & Ballot Hand-Counting

Over the past four years, election denialism has transformed American democracy. What was once a small, fringe, extremist belief is now a growing and increasingly dangerous enclave of the population that includes election officials among them. Already this year, Wisconsin voters passed two legislatively-referred initiatives rooted in allegations of fraud during the 2020 election while voters in three South Dakota counties rejected citizen-initiated measures that would have required ballots be counted by hand.

Two additional citizen-led efforts in Arkansas and North Dakota would have required, among other things, that ballots be hand-marked and hand-counted. Neither campaign was able to collect enough signatures to meet deadlines for the November 5 election, but it’s unlikely this is the last we’ll see of them.

Counter Measures

Counter measures are used to strategically divide and distract opponents, drain campaign funds, and cause voter confusion. BISC’s research going back to 2016 shows that voters take voting on ballot measures seriously and don’t want to make mistakes. When voters don’t have enough information about a ballot measure or are confused, they are more likely to vote “no” or skip voting on the measure. These more complicated ballots require a nuanced messaging approach, increasing the cost of voter education efforts in an already expensive and crowded election cycle.

There are additional risks if competing measures do appear on the ballot. 17 states have statutory or constitutional provisions about what happens when there are two competing measures on the ballot. In Nebraska for instance, the measure with the most votes supersedes the other on all points of conflict, but the measure with the least affirmative votes is not wholly superseded. In Arizona, the measure with the most votes wholly supersedes the other. This Fall, Nebraska voters could see two competing abortion rights measures on the ballot: one to protect reproductive freedom up until viability with exceptions thereafter, and one that bans abortions after the first trimester with some exceptions. In a presumed attempt to mislead Nebraska voters, the anti-abortion groups behind this measure are even using branding similar to the Protect Our Rights campaign. In April, anti-abortion politicians in Arizona accidentally leaked their plans to try and defeat the Arizona for Abortion Access Act by placing two legislatively-referred constitutional amendments banning abortion on the 2024 ballot to intentionally mislead voters and sow confusion. While the LRCAs did not come to fruition, the plan did reveal their ready willingness to disrupt direct democracy in order to suppress reproductive freedom.

Reproductive Freedom Ballot Measure Landscape: 2024 Outlook

As of June 27, 2024, there are efforts underway to put constitutional amendments regarding abortion on the 2024 ballot in as many as 12 states: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, and South Dakota.

Abortion rights groups are seeking to qualify ballot initiatives to uphold existing rights (Colorado, Montana, and Nevada) , improve restricted rights (Arizona, Florida, Nebraska), or even restore rights altogether (Arkansas, Missouri, South Dakota).

There is ongoing litigation challenging the abortion bans in most of these states, but without a constitutional amendment establishing a right to abortion, it is not certain that the respective supreme courts in these states will find the bans unconstitutional. However, if the initiatives establishing a right to abortion succeed in these states, abortion-rights advocates would have the certainty that these bans will be blocked in court.

Reproductive Freedom Measures on Ballot 2024:

  • Colorado Initiative 89: Right to Abortion and Health Insurance Coverage: Coloradans for Protecting Reproductive Freedom submitted approximately 240,000 signatures in support of their petition for a ballot measure to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution — over 100,000 more signatures than the required 124,238 required and possibly a statewide record. The measure would also allow abortion to be a covered service under health insurance plans for Colorado state and local government employees and for enrollees in state and local governmental insurance programs.
  • Florida Amendment 4: Limiting Government Interference in Abortion: Floridians Protecting Freedom (FPF) is leading the statewide Yes on 4 campaign of allied organizations and concerned citizens working together to protect Floridians’ access to abortion as reproductive health care and defend the right to bodily autonomy. On April 1, 2024, the Florida Supreme Court ruled 4-3 to give the green light for Amendment 4 to appear on the November ballot. The fate of Amendment 4 is especially important because that same day the court ruled 6-1 that Florida’s 15-week abortion ban doesn’t violate their state constitution; this ruling also clears the ruling for a new 6-week ban to take effect.
  • Illinois Assisted Reproductive Health Referendum Act Advisory Question: Rather than traditional ballot initiatives, Illinois instead looks to non-binding advisory questions that can serve to inform voters’ support for future policy. During the 2024 legislative session, legislators referred to the November ballot the following question: Should all medically appropriate assisted reproductive treatments, including, but not limited to, in vitro fertilization, be covered by any health insurance plan in Illinois that provides coverage for pregnancy benefits, without limitation on the number of treatments?
  • Maryland Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative: The Right to Reproductive Freedom initiative is a legislative-backed measure that would add the right to an abortion to the Declaration of Rights section in the state constitution, adding that every individual “has the fundamental right to reproductive freedom, including but not limited to the ability to make and effectuate decisions to prevent, continue, or end one’s own pregnancy.”
  • Nevada Reproductive Rights Amendment: A coalition of abortion rights advocates called Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom are backing a ballot initiative that would amend the state constitution to include abortion before “fetal viability” as a fundamental right, adding a layer of protection for reproductive rights in the state. The campaign submitted more than 200,000 petition signatures — nearly double the 102,000 required!
  • New York Equal Rights Amendment: This legislatively-referred initiative would protect abortion rights as part of an expanded Equal Rights Amendment that will appear on the ballot in November. Specifically on abortion, the measure protects against discrimination for pregnancy and pregnancy outcomes and would protect against government action that could limit reproductive care. Following a legal challenge that briefly removed the measure from the ballot due to a procedural error, the Appellate Division, Fourth Judicial Department unanimously ruled to place the Equal Rights Amendment back on the November 2024 ballot.
  • South Dakota Right to Abortion: Advocacy group Dakotans for Health submitted more than 55,000 signatures for an initiative that would make abortions legal in the first trimester but allow the state to regulate abortion in the second and third trimesters. Abortion is currently banned at all points of pregnancy in South Dakota, with limited exceptions. While the South Dakota Secretary of State validated the measure for the November election, opponents of abortion accused the campaign of violating signature-gathering laws and unsuccessfully sued to remove the measure from the ballot and to bar the group from engaging in signature collection for four years.

Direct Democracy Ballot Measure Landscape: 2024 Outlook

The direct democracy measures on the 2024 ballot reflect the notable attacks on the initiative process by opposition forces.

Direct Democracy Measures – Highlights on Ballot 2024:

  • Arizona: Distribution Requirement for Initiatives Amendment: This legislatively-referred constitutional amendment would introduce a signature distribution requirement for initiative petitions, mandating that a percentage of signatures come from each legislative district. The amendment would complicate and impede the initiative process even more in the state, potentially limiting the ability of citizens to enact change through direct democracy altogether. To mount such a robust statewide signature-gathering campaign advocates would need an immense amount of resources (financial, logistical, and otherwise), effectively barring grassroots groups from being able to use the People’s Tool.
  • Arizona: Legal Challenges to Constitutionality of Initiatives: This constitutional amendment allows a person to contest the constitutionality of an initiative measure or amendment in superior court after it has been filed and prohibits the Secretary of State from certifying or printing an amendment or measure that is found unconstitutional by a court of competent jurisdiction.
  • North Dakota: Single-Subject Requirement for Initiatives and Require Constitutional Initiatives to be Passed Twice North Dakota’s Republican-dominated legislature successfully referred a constitutional amendment to the ballot establishing a single-subject rule, raising the signature requirement for initiatives from 4% to 5% of the state population, and requiring that initiatives be approved first on the primary election ballot. The legislature referred a similar measure to the ballot in 2020 that failed, with 61.61% of voters rejecting it.

Economic Justice Ballot Measure Landscape: 2024 Outlook

The economic justice measures on the 2024 ballot reflect broader national trends and conversations surrounding workers’ rights, wages, and housing affordability.

Economic Justice Measures – Highlights on Ballot 2024:

  • Alaska: Minimum Wage Increase and Paid Sick Leave: Better Jobs for Alaska has qualified for the ballot a citizen-led initiative that would gradually raise the state’s minimum wage to $13 per hour effective July 1, 2025, to $14 per hour effective July 1, 2026, then finally to $15 per hour effective July 1, 2027, and allow the wage to be annually adjusted for inflation thereafter. The measure would also allow employees to accrue up to 40 or 56 hours of annual paid sick leave, depending on whether their employer has fewer than 15 employees versus 15 or more. After achieving statehood in 1959, Alaska became the first state to establish a minimum wage higher than the federal level. Impressively, it maintained this distinction for over 30 years, consistently holding the highest minimum wage rate among all states.
  • Arizona: Lower Tipped Worker Wages: The amendment would allow tipped workers to be paid 25% less per hour than the minimum wage, provided their total tips plus wages are not less than the minimum wage plus $2 for all hours worked. Raise the Wage Arizona filed a lawsuit to remove the measure from the ballot, claiming the title misleads voters into believing it will protect tipped workers when, in fact, it exploits them by allowing an even lower minimum wage than the current sub-minimum wage.
  • California: Expands local governments’ authority to enact rent control on residential property: The initiative aims to overturn the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act of 1995, which bars rent control on certain properties and sets restrictions on initial rental rates. Repealing this act would empower local governments to impose rent controls on all types of housing, including for new tenants, and activate dormant local laws affected by Costa-Hawkins. The Justice for Renters campaign, backed by the AIDS Healthcare Foundation, is spearheading the ballot initiative and noteworthy endorsements have been secured from prominent organizations such as the California Nurses Association, Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights, Housing is a Human Right, and Veterans’ Voices. 

Types of Ballot Measures:

There are several types of key ballot measure issue areas, including:

  • Direct Democracy: Laws governing ballot measures and the initiative process
    • Signature Gathering 
    • Language Development 
    • Protection and Implementation of Ballot Measures
  • Reproductive Freedom: Policies and legal protections to act on decisions regarding pregnancy
    • Reproductive Health: A continuum of physical, mental and social-emotional care pertaining to the reproductive system at all stages of life. 
    • Reproductive Rights: Largely focused on abortion, contraception, and in vitro fertilization (IVF) legal policies.
  • Economic Justice: Systemic policies that end the cycle of poverty and prevent wealth inequality
    • Worker Rights
    • Wages and Benefits 
    • Paid Sick Leave 
    • Paid Family Leave  
    • Fair Lending 
    • Housing
  • Democracy: Policies that pertain to our governing systems 
    • Voting Rights 
    • Elections 
    • Campaign Finance
    • Redistricting
  • Fiscal Policy: Policies that pertain to taxation and government spending
    • Income Taxes 
    • Property Taxes 
    • Corporate and Business Taxes 
    • State Budgets 
    • Education Funding 
  • Civil Rights: Guarantees of equal social opportunities and protection under the law, regardless of race, religion, or other characteristics
    • Racial Equality 
    • Gender Equality 
    • Marriage Equality 
    • Criminal Legal Reform
  • Health Justice: Access to equitable and affordable quality health care for all
    • Medicaid Expansion 
    • Universal Healthcare 
    • Cost Transparency 
    • Full-Body Healthcare 
  • Education: Policies in the educational sphere that govern the operation of education systems
    • Public Education Funding and Vouchers
    • School-to-Prison Pipeline 
    • Curriculum
    • School Choice 
  • Environmental Protection: Policies that impact the protection of the natural environment, conservation of natural resources and the existing natural environment
    • Oil & Gas 
    • Mining 
    • Air Quality 
    • Recycling 
    • Land Use 
  • Immigration: Policies that influence migration for permanent settlement, temporary labor migration, migration for family reunification and migration of highly skilled workers

BISC’s Resource Library houses ballot measure information ranging from past campaign materials to campaign debriefers to memos highlighting best practices, serving as a unique resource for campaigns to build their own strategies. To request access to the library, please email [email protected].