September 2024 Hot Sheet: Analysis + Trendwatching Across the Ballot Measure Landscape
Welcome back to The Hot Sheet!
Here, we give you a quick rundown of what you need to know about the 2024 ballot measure landscape right now — the trends, analysis, highlights of what’s on the ballot, and why it all matters. *Please note that the landscape information provided below is subject to change.
For more in-depth analysis, our latest voter attitudes research, and a list of all the measures we’re tracking, head to our Ballot Measure Hub.
On the 2024 Ballot
As of September 13, there are 153 measures remaining on statewide and Washington D.C. ballots in 2024. Of those measures,
- 79 are legislatively-referred
- 57 are citizen-initiated
- 13 are bond issues
- 3 are advisory questions
- 1 is a constitutional convention question
Issue Area Breakdown
The Toplines
- A district court judge in Utah has ruled that the legislatively-referred, anti-direct democracy Amendment D is void and while it will still appear on voters’ ballots, its votes will not be counted. However, state lawmakers have already appealed that decision to the Utah Supreme Court.
- This fall, New York’s Proposal 1 joins nine other states with proactive abortion-related measures on the ballot: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, and South Dakota. Additionally, an anti-abortion countermeasure has qualified for Nebraska’s ballot.
- A 4-3 Republican majority on the Ohio Supreme Court has ruled that much of Issue 1’s ballot language that advocates challenged as biased and misleading will remain in place.
Emerging Trends
Attempts by State Lawmakers to Subvert the Will of the People
From increased signature count requirements to extended legal challenge timelines, BISC closely follows the myriad of tactics used by state lawmakers to undermine the ballot initiative process itself. But even when a citizen-led initiative succeeds at the ballot box or a legislatively-referred measure is rejected, some lawmakers continue to fight against voters’ wishes — even to the point of ignoring or overruling election outcomes altogether.
The Utah Legislature, for example, made headlines in July when the state supreme court unanimously ruled against lawmakers’ ‘infringement’ on direct democracy. The court case centered on a successful 2018 citizen-led anti-gerrymandering ballot initiative that legislators repealed and replaced in order to draw their own voting district maps. Agitated by the court’s ruling and hoping to defend their gerrymandered maps, legislators have rushed to the ballot Amendment D, which would grant them the right to weaken the People’s Tool by repealing ballot initiative outcomes.
Special Interest-Backed Initiatives Posing as Economic Justice
This November, voters across the country will have an opportunity to support economic justice measures like minimum wage increases, paid sick leave requirements, affordable housing strategies, and more. But some ballots will also include special interest-backed initiatives that may appear to provide relief when in fact they pose notable risks to pocketbooks and public benefits.
Take for example Arizona’s legislatively-referred Prop. 138 ‘Tipped Workers Protect Act’ measure. Backed by the Arizona Restaurant Association, it would actually allow tipped workers to be paid 25% less per hour than the minimum wage.
Ballot Measures to Watch
Issue: Democracy
Ohio Issue 1: Citizen-Led Redistricting Reform
What It Does: Replaces the panel of elected officials who draw Ohio’s state legislative and congressional district maps with a newly created citizen’s commission. The commission would consist of 15 people and be composed of five Republicans, five Democrats and five independents. Former or current elected officials, lobbyists, and major political donors would be prohibited from joining the commission.
Why It Matters: Ohio is one of the 10 most gerrymandered states in the country, and its voting district maps virtually guarantee that those currently in power stay in power. The Citizens Not Politicians campaign is fighting for a redistricting process that is fair and impartial, one that empowers voters to choose their politicians — not the other way around.
BISC ANALYSIS: Voters Rely on Ballot Initiatives To Provide Checks and Balances on Redistricting Process: Voting rights advocates have long pointed to gerrymandered districts as a means of voter suppression and maintaining the status quo for a party in power. Rather than wait for lawmakers to act — which they may be reluctant to do if it puts their interests or party’s chances at risk, citizens are turning to the initiative process to push the issue forward. In recent years, Colorado, Michigan, and Utah voters have successfully passed ballot measures to create independent redistricting commissions.
Issue: Reproductive Freedom
New York Proposal 1: Equal Rights Amendment
What It Does: Updates the Equal Protection Clause of the New York Constitution to also prevent discrimination based on sexual orientation, gender identity and expression, pregnancy outcomes, and reproductive healthcare.
Why It Matters: The New York Equal Rights Amendment would close loopholes in the state constitution that anti-abortion lawmakers have tried to exploit in recent years. In the last decade alone, more than 50 anti-abortion policies have been introduced at the state legislature.
BISC ANALYSIS: Ballot Measures Closing Loopholes to Protect Reproductive Freedom: While reproductive health care and rights are already protected statutorily in some states, without constitutional protections there are no guarantees that legislative bodies won’t take advantage of loopholes to weaken or overturn the protections. With 10 proactive constitutional amendments up for a vote this November, advocates are looking to shore up defenses for abortion rights (and in some states, to restore those rights altogether). It’s no surprise that voters are taking matters into their own hands to protect against anti-abortion legislation; in an 11-state poll from December 2023, BISC found that 89% of respondents feel ballot initiatives are an important check on legislative power.
Issue: Economic Justice + Labor
Massachusetts Question 3: Unionization and Collective Bargaining for Transportation Network Drivers
What It Does: Guarantees Uber, Lyft, and other transportation network drivers the right to unionize. The state would oversee the negotiation process and approve the negotiated recommendations on wages, benefits, and working conditions.
Why It Matters: The Yes on 3 coalition says that many drivers take home less than $15 an hour (the state’s minimum wage) and have no protections against arbitrary deactivation of their accounts. Question 3’s passage would ensure that drivers have the option to form a union to fight against such policies, an option that is already available for most other workers in Massachusetts.
BISC ANALYSIS: Collective Bargaining Leads to Collective Benefits: Allowing Massachusetts’ transportation network drivers to form unions and engage in collective bargaining could prove to be a watershed moment for all those working within the gig economy. Historically, many of the battles won by unions have gone on to benefit all workers. For example, when unionized workers earn wage increases, other non-union employers raise wages in order to better attract and retain workers; the same goes for benefits such as health insurance and paid leave. Should unionized drivers successfully negotiate for, say, gas or toll road reimbursement, delivery app companies could choose to provide a similar benefit for their own drivers in order to stay competitive in recruitment and hiring.
For more in-depth analysis and a list of all the measures we’re tracking, head to our Ballot Measure Hub.