October 2024 Hot Sheet: Analysis + Trendwatching Across the Ballot Measure Landscape

10/23/2024

Welcome back to The Hot Sheet!

Here, we give you a quick rundown of what you need to know about the 2024 ballot measure landscape — the trends, analysis, highlights of what’s on the ballot, and why it all matters. *Please note that the landscape information provided below is subject to change.

For more in-depth analysis, our latest voter attitudes research, and a list of all the measures we’re tracking, head to our Ballot Measure Hub.

What’s on the 2024 ballot

As of October 21, there are 151 measures remaining on statewide and Washington D.C. ballots in 2024. Of those measures, 

• 77 are legislatively-referred
• 57 are citizen-initiated
• 13 are bond issues
• 3 are advisory questions
• 1 is a constitutional convention question

Issue Area Breakdown

The Toplines

• Even with Election Day around the corner some campaigns, like those for Florida’s Amendment 4 and South Dakota’s Amendment G, are still battling anti-abortion legal challenges that seek to invalidate the measures.
• Legislatures in California, Colorado, and Hawai’i have all referred to the November ballot constitutional amendments intended to safeguard their states’ freedom to marry if a conservative-majority U.S. Supreme Court were to overturn existing protections, as was the case with 2022’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.
• Proactive abortion rights amendments offer a reprieve for not just the states where they’re being introduced, but for neighboring states as well. For example, Missouri’s Amendment 3 would both restore abortion rights in the state and allow Missouri to be a sort of abortion access oasis to Arkansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Tennessee — all of which currently have a trigger ban in place following the Dobbs decision.

Similarly, paid sick leave — on the ballot this November in Alaska, Missouri, and Nebraska — offers benefits in three-fold: the workers who can rest when they are sick, the communities that can avoid the spread of illness, and the business owners who can better retain employees.

Emerging Trends

Some States Experiencing A Rise in Ballot Measure Counts

While the total number of measures on ballots nationwide in 2024 is on par for recent years, several states are experiencing their own increases. In fact, voters in Arizona, Colorado, Massachusetts, and Nevada will be asked to decide the fate of more measures than they’ve seen in decades.

• • The 13 measures on the Arizona ballot this November marks the largest total for the state since 2006’s count of 19. Notably, 11 of the 2024 measures are legislatively-referred constitutional amendments or state statutes, while only two are citizen-led efforts.
  • Colorado voters will be deciding a total of 14 ballot measures for the first time since 2008. That ballot held ten citizen-initiated measures and four legislatively-referred, compared to this year’s equal split of seven and seven.
  • It’s been 24 years since Massachusetts voters last saw at least five questions on their ballot; eight total measures were proposed in 2000.

This November’s seven ballot measures in Nevada is the most since 2006’s ten.

Last-Minute Legal Challenges

In the final days and weeks leading up to ballot printing deadlines, ballot measure supporters and opponents across the country rushed to file or fend off legal challenges that could affect how voters weigh the measures — if at all. Such legal battles are becoming more common as progressive issues continue to win with voters, and as a result, some legislators are trying to block the will of the people when they don’t like the results.

• • Floridians Protecting Freedom have been forced back into court following a recent Florida Office of Election Crimes & Security report accusing the campaign of widespread petition fraud, though failing to cite evidence to back up the bold claim. A group of anti-abortion activists are now alleging that the campaign failed to meet the required signature count and are asking the courts to invalidate Amendment 4.
  • Earlier this fall, two Republican Missouri legislators and an anti-abortion activist unsuccessfully sued to have the abortion rights Amendment 3 removed from this November’s ballot. Despite a lower court ruling that briefly left the fate of the amendment uncertain, a 4-3 decision by the Missouri Supreme Court ultimately ruled in favor of keeping the abortion rights measure on the ballot for voters to decide. 
  • In Nebraska, the abortion rights amendment (Initiative 439) and its anti-abortion countermeasure (Initiative 434) survived a combined total of three lawsuits in the final weeks leading up to the finalization of the state’s ballots. A referendum to repeal a law that allows the state to use public tax dollars for private school scholarships (Referendum 435) also survived a last-minute legal challenge. Finally, the citizen-led effort to legalize and regulate medical marijuana use (Initiatives 437 and 438) continues to await a court’s decision following a lawsuit that questions their petition signatures following a series of charges against a signature collector and public notary. 
  • The fate of Constitutional Amendment G in South Dakota will not be decided for another month following Election Day due to a series of scheduling snafus following Life Defense Fund’s most recent lawsuit to invalidate the abortion rights amendment. 

The Utah Education Association recently successfully sued to have Amendment A disqualified. As is the case with the now void Amendment D, the legislatively-referred proposal will remain on this year’s ballot, but its votes will not be counted.

Ballot Measures to Watch

Issue: Civil Rights

California Proposition 3: Freedom to Marry

What It Does: This legislatively-referred constitution amendment would not only repeal the infamous, discriminatory Prop. 8 passed in 2008, but also add language affirming the freedom to marry as an extension of fundamental rights. 

Why It Matters: 2008’s Prop. 8 dealt a meaningful blow to the LGBTQ+ community when it limited marriage to being only between a man and a woman. Despite the Obergefell v. Hodges ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court which upheld the Freedom to Marry in 2015 , that restriction has remained on the books in California. Proposition 3 removes the law and safeguards the freedom to marry as being equal in importance to liberty or privacy.

BISC ANALYSIS: Getting Ahead of the Curve with Proactive Measures to Protect the Freedom to Marry: While Nevada became the first state to successfully enshrine the Freedom to Marry in their state constitution in 2020, dozens of other states still have laws on the books limiting marriage to between a man and a woman. Such laws have been essentially moot since Obergefell v Hodges, but that could too easily change. In his concurring opinion to the 2022 Dobbs decision that stripped protections for abortion rights, Justice Clarence Thomas said that the court should also revisit other decisions — including Obergefell. It is likely that this year’s ballot measures in California, Colorado, and Hawai’i are the first in a wave of proactive measures to fend off (or respond to) any such attacks by a conservative-majority SCOTUS. 

Issue: Reproductive Freedom

Missouri Amendment 3: Right to Reproductive Freedom

What It Does: This amendment would prevent Missouri’s state government from denying or interfering with a person’s fundamental right to reproductive freedom — including abortion, childbirth, IVF, contraception, and more — up until the point of fetal viability. Following that point (typically estimated at 24-26 weeks), an abortion would be permitted if advised by a healthcare professional to protect the life or physical/mental health of the patient.

Why It Matters: Missouri’s near-total abortion ban, which took effect immediately following SCOTUS’ 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, is considered to be one of the strictest in the nation. State law prohibits all abortion care except when necessary to save the patient’s life or prevent serious injury — even if the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest. Should Amendment 3 pass, it would restore critical abortion access not only for Missourians but also for those in nearby states whose reproductive rights have been similarly stripped in recent years due to trigger bans.

BISC ANALYSIS: Reproductive Freedom Wins Would Prove Critical for States’ Citizens — and Neighbors: Florida and Missouri are each aiming to significantly restore abortion access in their states — with critical implications for others. Florida, for example, is an essential access point for the nearly 15 million people of reproductive age whose states ban or severely limit abortion rights. For Missouri, a state with a near-total abortion ban, the success of Amendment 3 would benefit several of its surrounding states suffering from similar trigger bans including Arkansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. With ten total proactive abortion measures up for a vote across the country this November, one thing is certain: any single victory would stretch far beyond a state’s borders.

Issue: Economic Justice + Labor

Nebraska Initiative 436: Paid Sick Leave for Nebraskans

What It Does: Requires Nebraska employers to provide one hour of paid sick leave for every 30 hours worked. Workers at a job with fewer than 20 employees could earn up to five days of paid sick leave per year. Those at jobs with more than 20 employees could get seven.

Why It Matters: According to the Paid Sick Leave for Nebraskans campaign, more than 250,000 Nebraskans currently lack paid sick leave — more than a third of employees working full-time and more than three-fourths of part-time employees. Paid sick leave is good for business owners, too, whether it’s improving recruitment and retention rates or preventing illnesses from spreading worker-to-worker or employee-to-customer. That’s why more than 200 Nebraska businesses have publicly endorsed Initiative 436.

BISC ANALYSIS: Paid Sick Leave Benefits Employees and Employers Alike: According to the Center for American Progress, paid sick leave has proven to be not only good for workers but for communities and the economy at large. If an employee is able to stay home until an illness passes, they’re less likely to spread the infection to their coworkers or customers. When a worker is able to use paid sick leave for routine preventative care appointments or screenings, they’re more likely to address  medical concerns  before they become a larger issue that necessitates a long leave of absence — or having to leave a job altogether. When workers win paid sick leave, companies win increased productivity, more competitive employee recruitment, and lower employee turnover rates. For example, Mike Draper, a Kansas City business owner who’s joined 500 others in endorsing the citizen-initiated Amendment A ballot initiative, stated that, “We pay more than $15 starting wage now and provide paid sick leave because we want our employees to want to work for us – and keep working for us.”