June 2026 Hot Sheet: 2026 Anti-Trans Measures Relying on a a 2004 Playbook
By: Hillary-Anne Crosby, Senior Manager of Public Policy Communications
Welcome back to The Hot Sheet!
Here, we give you a quick rundown of what you need to know about the ballot measure landscape — the trends, legislative analysis, highlights of what’s on the ballot, and why it all matters.
For more in-depth analysis, our latest voter attitudes research, and information on the measures we’re tracking, head to our Ballot Measure Hub.
The Toplines
- As of May 31, BISC is tracking a total of 333 ballot measures, with 107 measures certified for the 2026 ballot.
- BISC is monitoring 183 bills related to direct democracy filed in legislatures across 37 states and Washington, D.C. as of June 1.
- Ballot measures proposing proof-of-citizenship requirements risk blocking legally eligible voters from engaging in their democracy.
- A new legislatively-referred measure in Arizona is attempting to bar trans youth from joining school or intramural sports teams that best align with their gender identity..
- Virginia voters have a chance to affirm marriage equality in their state constitution this November.
- In a strategy pulled from an early 2000s playbook, political strategists are relying on anti-trans measures to draw conservative voters to the polls.
2026 Qualified Ballot Measures
As of May 31, there are 107 measures certified for 2026 ballots. 10 of these are on primary ballots.
BISC is also monitoring 183 bills related to direct democracy filed in legislatures across 37 states and Washington D.C. as of June 1. At least 72 of those bills feature some level of attack on the People’s Tool.
Developing Trend
The Specter of Non-Citizen Voting
This November, voters around the country could decide on ballot measures purporting to limit voting rights to legal U.S. citizens. So, why this year’s rash of bans?
It all ties back to unfounded claims of widespread voting fraud and ongoing efforts to attack American voting rights. According to the Fair Elections Center, even the conservative Heritage Foundation counts only 99 suspected cases of non-citizen voting fraud nationwide since 2000. This year Arkansans will weigh in on a U.S. citizenship requirement despite an October 2025 review by their Secretary of State that found only about 0.00002% of the state’s voters were noncitizens. And that’s no typo, that is a fraction of a fraction of a fraction. It’s important to note that while non-citizens do occasionally mistakenly register to vote, it’s extraordinarily rare for them to vote in elections.
But these attacks aren’t about reducing numbers or solving a legitimate problem, they’re about causing a chilling effect. A 2023 survey revealed that more than 3.8 million Americans don’t have any form of proof of citizenship. And the lack of documentation disproportionately affects groups who have historically been denied equal voting rights and access: 11% of respondents of color were unable to readily access proof of citizenship compared to 8% of their white counterparts.
In light of 2026’s ongoing attacks on voting rights, it’s disappointing but unsurprising to see a slate of citizenship requirements lined up for this year’s ballot. Such restrictions inevitably prevent legally eligible voters from being allowed to engage in their democracy and vote on measures and candidates that impact their communities. Critics of these kinds of anti-voting proposals are particularly concerned that these limits could prevent millions of Americans from voting in 2028, resulting in a presidential election that could be decided by minority rule.
As these attempts to block people from voting grow in number and severity, pro-democracy groups across local, state, and national levels must double down to ensure voters are best equipped to navigate an elections system that is in some cases being rigged against them.
2026 Ballot Measures to Watch
Issue: Civil Rights
Arizona HCR 2003: Trans Student Exclusion from Schools Sports and Facilities (LR)
What It Does: Under this constitutional amendment, trans youth would be barred from joining school or intramural sports teams that best align with their gender identity. Use of school or athletic facility bathrooms and locker rooms would also be restricted to sex assigned at birth.
Why It Matters: This proposal doubles down on the Arizona legislature’s years-long attacks on trans youth. Between the extension of an existing public school sports ban and the new bathroom and locker room restrictions, trans young people are being systematically stripped of their rights to the same experiences, opportunities, and dignities as their cis peers. HCR 2003 is the latest anti-trans athletics measure to qualify for a statewide ballot, joining two other confirmed measures that would affect schools and athletic associations in Colorado and Washington. Similar initiatives in Nebraska and Nevada are still attempting to qualify for the ballot. (Note: an initiative in Maine has recently been removed from the ballot after the validity of more than 12,5000 petition signatures was called into question.)
Virginia HJ 3: Affirmative Right to Marry (LR)
What It Does: This constitutional amendment bars the Commonwealth from denying marriage licenses on the basis of the sex, gender, or race. Additionally, it would repeal an existing provision that defined marriage as being only between one man and one woman.
Why It Matters: A 1967 landmark Supreme Court decision, Loving v. Virginia, struck down a state law that banned interracial marriage. With this year’s proposal, Virginians now have an opportunity to directly strike another discriminatory marriage law. While the existing ban on same-sex marriage hasn’t been enforceable in years, this is a critical opportunity to shore up equal protections amid potential threats to 2015’s Obergefell decision.
BISC ANALYSIS: An Opportunity to Make History — or to Repeat It: With President George W. Bush facing a challenging 2004 reelection campaign, conservative strategists saw an incendiary opportunity to drive their voters to the polls: same-sex marriage bans. That November, 13 states passed discriminatory ballot measures that limited marriage to between a man and a woman. While those bans were successfully overturned a decade later under SCOTUS’ Windsor and Obergefell rulings, conservative groups haven’t forgotten that 2004 strategy.
Fast forward over 20 years and this November we’re facing hugely consequential midterm elections. In states across the country, voters will weigh in on congressional representation, governors, voting rights, taxes, and more. With so much on the line, conservative strategists see yet another incendiary opportunity to rally their base: anti-trans ballot measures. As of June 15, there are six such measures on the 2026 ballot and at least two others still trying to qualify. Use of these measures as a tactic to draw conservative voters to the polls couldn’t be more clear. To name just a few examples: Nevada’s governor has explicitly named his anti-trans initiative as a ‘vote getter’ for his re-election campaign, Missouri’s ban on gender-affirming care for young people attempts to mask a near-total ban on abortion, and Maine’s incumbent senator publicly supported a newly-disqualified anti-trans initiative.
This year, voters have a rare opportunity to learn from the past. In each state where anti-trans measures are on the ballot, LGBTQIA+ advocates are reflecting on the lessons of the 2000s to build bold new defensive strategies against similar bad-faith tactics. Through deep canvassing, community-centered messaging, and strategic research, state-based and national organizations are fighting to defeat these anti-trans measures and to keep history from repeating itself.
In Case You Missed It
BISC’S Free Summer Training Series: Road Trip to Victory: Running June 17 through Labor Day, this nine-module training program is designed for ballot measure leaders navigating real-time campaign challenges. Led by experienced practitioners from across the country, sessions are grounded in today’s political environment and focused on practical strategies campaigns can use immediately. While primarily designed for active 2026 campaigns, the series is also open to organizers planning for 2027 and beyond. Sign up today!
BISC’S New Substack: Direct Democracy Dispatch: At this pivotal moment for our democracy, it’s never been more important to keep up with the rapidly changing ballot measure landscape and find resources to support the campaigns driving real change. Whether it’s sharing campaign updates, uplifting the ballot measure leaders running these campaigns, breaking down the top ballot measure news stories of the day, or analyzing the latest trends, #DirectDemocracyDispatch is home to everything you need to stay engaged, informed, and involved as the 2026 elections approach. Subscribe to our Substack now so you don’t miss a thing!
BISC’s Resource Library: Our Partner Portal Resource Library houses ballot measure information ranging from campaign tools, templates, and past campaign materials (Values, MOUS, RFPs, etc.) — to campaign debriefs and memos highlighting best practices. This library is a unique resource that can help campaigns and organizations build strategies and operationalize racial equity. To request access to the library, please email [email protected]